MCD's Same-Store Sales Picture in July

"Please note that this [July] 2.7% figure does NOT represent any type of a forecast by me. The 2.7% figure is merely being relayed by me in this document, as it may be of interest to some folks."
   
   With customary caution Mark Kalinowski reports his estimate of MCD’s July same-store sales. The figure, the same as June’s, is based on reports from owner-operators of some 227 restaurants around the country. You can count on the figure being close. In the 38 times the former Wall Street analyst has published his non-forecast, it has been within 100 basis points on 23 occasions and within 200 bp 33 times. 
   Kalinowski is accurate not only because he is smart and experienced, but because he has apparently gained the trust of the McDonald’s franchisees he’s been talking to since launching his non-estimates in June ‘03. 
   This month, for instance, several sized up why comps remain flat. Here’s a sampling:

      * “Comping against strong sales from previous year.”

      * “Economy, Angus, frappes, smoothies”

      * “The economy has really caught up with us.”

 
      * “Can’t build sales with negative customer counts.”

 
      * “We remain negative in customer counts due to high unemployment.”

   Kalinowski also included a handful of "general comments" from franchisees. Most alas are gripes. Here are two:

      * “McDonald’s management has misread the market. It is rolling out a $4 sandwich and high-end coffee when people are not spending money on expensive items. Other QSR’s are focused on a value menu with discount offers. McDonald’s is missing their core market, family value minded customers. It may take some time but the end results will be the biggest loss of market share of any major company in recent history. McDonald’s management does not understand who its customers are.”

      * “Those owner/operators I know, who knew what this business WAS in the 60’s, 70’s & even 80’s are heartsick and disgusted. The weak second generation and ex-company employee owner/operators don’t realize what this might have been! The entrepreneur is dead, he simply hasn’t laid down yet.”

   "This document is for informational purposes only," Kalinowski adds.