Seventy-four percent of the respondents expect that the recession will end by the third quarter of 2009, although 19 percent believe the turning point may be delayed until the final quarter of this year and 7 percent believe that it may not occur until the first quarter of next year. None of the participants believes that the recession will extend beyond the first quarter of 2010.

“The survey found that business economists look for the recession to end soon, but that the economic recovery is likely to be considerably more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines. Moreover, despite encouraging signs seen in the last several weeks, the NABE panel downgraded the economic outlook for the next several quarters,compared with the previous survey,” said NABE President Chris Varvares.