Milk at $2 a gallon, gasoline at $3 and gold selling at how much per ounce?

These are turbulent times in the commodity markets, as a weak dollar and uncertain demand have sent some of the global economy's basic building blocks soaring -- or sinking, as the case may be.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve once again left interest rates at practically zero and issued a soothing statement that belies the stormy conditions. Its policymakers are counting on idle workers, unused plant capacity and surplus materials to keep inflation in check overall.

But with prices on the move for everything from industrial metals to Southeast Asian real estate, fears are reviving of new "bubbles" being created in some markets, even as deflation reigns in others.

It's hard to make sense of the choppy signals, which adds to an unsettled feeling among investors. Everyday Americans are "desperate for certainty," said David Oser, executive vice president at Chicago's ShoreBank. "People are scared."

The stock market, the house, the bank account -- nothing, it seems, qualifies as a safe haven, he noted. "There's no sure thing. The economy is still very, very weak."

It's not likely to change any time soon, either. The Fed intends to keep interest rates low for an extended period to shore up that very weakness. And given the extent of the damage from last year's financial meltdown, an uneven recovery could be as good as it gets.

Veteran farmer Paul Taylor, who grows corn, soybeans and vegetables on 1,000 acres in north central Illinois, sees a disconnect between his soggy fields and the prices for food on the family dinner table. Wet conditions have delayed the harvest and damaged at least part of his crop.

Yet as in many other sectors, food prices have demonstrated little consistency. Corn is going up, and packaged goods on the supermarket shelves down.

"There are problems out in farm country that aren't showing up in the marketplace," Taylor said. "It will take a couple of months for the market to catch up. The jury's not settled on this."

Grocery prices have fallen about 2.5 percent from a year ago. The food portion of the benchmark consumer price index has slipped for six of the past eight months, and its year-over-year decline represents an "extremely rare" development, according to Carl Riccadonna, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

While restaurant prices have held steadier, Riccadonna sees downward pressure at retail for the next 18 months or so, he said.

"As time goes on and prices fall further in the grocery store, I think more people will notice," Riccadonna said.

Falling prices have become a factor in the financial results of major food companies, from Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. and Sysco Corp. to Kraft Foods Inc., which just reported a sharp drop in the price of its cheese.

For consumers suffering through the recession, deflation in the food sector probably sounds just fine.

From his combine in Esmond, Ill., where he's struggling to harvest his crop, Taylor begs to differ.

"Generally, I think food is a good bargain, but we're going to get back into an inflationary time," he said. "Food inflation is coming back."

Watch for more volatility ahead as other out-of-whack markets regain their footing. Taylor, for one, is expecting a "wild ride."

gburns@tribune.com