We asked restaurant analyst Jeffrey Bernstein of New York-based Lehman Brothers to peer into his crystal ball and tell us which chains are prepared to survive the looming recession and which will have to tough it out in 2008.

What's the outlook for sales and earnings among the companies in your universe?

There definitely remains a split decision between quick-service restaurants, which are posting strong sales and earnings, and casual-dining and high-growth specialty chains, which continue to struggle with those same metrics.

The reason?

Fast-food chains not only have strong domestic business from trade-down and a compelling value message, they also have significant international exposure and are primarily franchised, thus limiting their commodity and labor cost exposure.

Yet aren't fast feeders suffering, too?

Absolutely. Lunch and dinner have definitely softened for fast food as well, but it's not of the magnitude of casual dining. With the consumer no longer eating the traditional three meals, QSR has responded by pushing breakfast, afternoon snacks and late night, none of which are priorities in casual dining. Those dayparts have carried the QSR sector's results over the past 12 to 24 months.

Given that scenario, will you be in upgrade or downgrade mode this year?

We are very bullish and remain strong believers in QSR chains. Even though many are trading near peak multiples, there are still buyers. Casual-dining chains, despite sitting at close-to-trough multiples, don't seem to have any near-term support. We've been looking for some sign of stabilization, and we've not seen it yet.

Are you saying casual-dining and specialty chains won't recover anytime soon?

There will be continued pressure on them even though their valuations appear compelling. Many people compare their current prices to historical ranges and say, “Wow, these names are getting relatively inexpensive.”

And the problem with that?

The thinking being that those ranges applied to the times when these chains were growing at x percent a year, and now they have slowed down unit growth and traffic has turned negative. So even if you believe they can get back to that growth over the next three years, in the near term, there is no way investors are willing to pay 20 times for it. Historical ranges are only so relevant in this environment.

Which stocks demonstrate resiliency to the macro trends in 2008?

Burger King and McDonald's have done the best job responding to macro issues, with value menus and daypart opportunities. They also have tremendous international exposure. If the U.S. economy falls into a recession, they have the potential to offset some of that weakness.

Which stocks are going to have a rough year?

We definitely remain more cautious on casual-dining stocks, like Brinker and P.F. Chang's. In addition, we are still cautious on Panera, which is a fast-casual chain.

Speaking of which, what's the outlook for Chipotle?

Chipotle is the one name proven to be somewhat immune to the broader consumer macro weakness. Whether or not that stock holds in there remains to be seen. If it demonstrates even a modest slowdown from its stellar results, it could see significant pullback in 2008.